Gambling on the Qantas brand
Qantas seems to be betting a de-emphasised image as a national carrier is the best business strategy. But selling itself in the Australian market will be tough without this model. 1 Nov 2011 12:26 PMFavourite-longshot bias
In gambling and economics, the favourite-longshot bias is an observed phenomenon where on average, bettors tend to overvalue "long shots" and undervalue favourites. That is, in a horse race where one horse is given odds of 2-to-1, and another 100-to-1, the true odds might for example be 1.5-to-1 and 300-to-1 respectively. Betting on the "long shot" is therefore a much worse proposition than betting on the favourite. Various theories exist to explain why people willingly bet on such losing propositions, such as risk-loving behavior, or simply inaccurate estimation as presented by Sobel and Raines.[1]
References
- ^ Russell S. Sobel & S. Travis Raines, 2003. "An examination of the empirical derivatives of the favourite-longshot bias in racetrack betting," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 371-385, January
References
- http://bpp.wharton.upenn.edu/jwolfers/Papers/Favorite_Longshot_Bias.pdf
- http://favourite-longshot-bias.behaviouralfinance.net/
This article is licensed under the GNU Free Documentation License. It uses material from the Wikipedia.
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In gambling, Dutching is sharing the risk of losing across a number or runners by backing more than one selection in a race or event. The process calculates the correct stake to place on each selection so that the return is the same if any of them wins. This is not to be confused with what constitutes a Dutch book which is when a bookmaker goes overbroke (the opposite to overround).
It is thought the strategy behind Dutching was originally conceived and employed by Arthur Flegenheimer (aka Dutch Schultz) alongside various rackets he had running at the racetrack. The system has since taken his name.
The strategy can pay dividends when gamblers successfully reduce the potential winners of an event to a select few from the field or when information about runners not expected to perform well does not reach the market (so as to affect the odds) making backing the rest of the field profitable.
Dutching calculators that perform the mathematics behind the system are freely available on the internet.
This article is licensed under the GNU Free Documentation License. It uses material from the Wikipedia.
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