Martingale
Originally, martingale referred to a class of betting strategies popular in 18th century France. The simplest of these strategies was designed for a game in which the gambler wins his stake if a coin comes up heads and loses it if the coin comes up tails. The strategy had the gambler double his bet after every loss, so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus win a profit equal to the original stake. Since a gambler with infinite wealth will, with probability 1, eventually flip heads, the Martingale betting strategy was seen as a sure thing by those who advocated it. Of course, none of the gamblers in fact possessed infinite wealth, and the exponential growth of the bets would eventually bankrupt those who chose to use the Martingale. It is widely believed that casinos instituted betting limits specifically to stop Martingale players, but in reality the assumptions behind the strategy are unsound. Players using the Martingale system do not have any long-term mathematical advantage over any other betting system or even randomly placed bets.
Effect of variance
As with any betting system, it sometimes happens that one achieves a better result than the expected negative return, by temporarily avoiding a losing streak. Furthermore, a straight string of losses is the only sequence of outcomes that results in a loss of money, so even when a player has lost the majority of his bets, he can still be ahead overall, since he always wins 1 unit when a bet wins, regardless of how many previous losses.[1]
Anti-martingale
In a classic martingale betting style, gamblers will increase their bets after each loss in hopes that an eventual win will recover all previous losses. The anti-martingale approach instead increases bets after wins, while reducing them after a loss. The perception is that in this manner the gambler will benefit from a winning streak or a "hot hand", while reducing losses while "cold" or otherwise having a losing streak. As the single bets are independent from each other (and from the gambler's expectations), the same conclusions as above apply.
References
- ^ "Martingale Long Term vs. Short Term Charts". Blackjackincolor.com.
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Odds
Odds for different outcomes in a single bet are presented either in European format (decimal odds), UK format (fractional odds), or American format (moneyline odds). European format (decimal odds) are favoured in continental Europe, Canada, and Australia. They are the ratio of the full payout to the stake, in a decimal format. Decimal odds of 2.00 are an even bet. UK format (fractional odds) are favoured by British bookmakers. They are the ratio of the amount won to the stake. Fractional odds of 1/1 are an even bet. US format odds are favoured in the United States. They are the amount won on a 100 stake when positive and the stake needed to win 100 when negative. US odds of 100 are an even bet.
| Decimal | Fractional | US |
| 1.50 | 1/2 | -200 |
| 2.00 | 1/1 | +100 |
| 2.50 | 3/2 | +150 |
| 3.00 | 2/1 | +200 |
| x | To | Do this |
|---|---|---|
| Decimal | Fractional | x-1 , then convert to fraction |
| Decimal | US | 100*(x-1) if x>=2; -100/(x-1) if x<2 |
| Fractional | Decimal | divide fraction, then x+1 |
| Fractional | US | divide fraction, then 100*x if x>=1; -100/x if x<1 |
| US | Decimal | (x/100)+1 if x>0; (-100/x)+1 if x<0 |
| US | Fractional | x/100, then convert to fraction if x>0; -100/x, then convert to fraction if x<0 |
In Asia betting markets, other frequently used formats for expressing odds include Hong Kong, Malay, and Indonesian-style odds formats. Odds are also quite often expressed in terms of implied probability, which corresponds to the probability with which the event in question would need to occur for the bet to be a breakeven proposition (on the average).
Many online tools also exist for automated conversion between these odds formats.
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Operational procedures of the bookmakers
By adjusting the odds in his favor or by having a point spread, the bookmaker will aim to guarantee a profit by achieving a 'balanced book', either by getting an equal number of bets for each outcome, or (when he is offering odds) by getting the amounts wagered on each outcome to reflect the odds. When a large bet comes in, a bookmaker can also try to lay off the risk by buying bets from other bookmakers. The bookmaker does not generally attempt to make money from the bets themselves, but rather profiting from the event regardless of the outcome. Their working methods are similar to that of an actuary, who does a similar balancing of financial outcomes of events for the assurance and insurance industries.
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Bookmakers
Bookmakers on a greyhound race course, Reading, UK
A bookmaker, or bookie, is an organization or a person that takes bets on sporting and other events at agreed upon odds.
Range of events
Most bookmakers in the United States bet merely on college and professional sports, though in the United Kingdom and Ireland they offer a wider range of bets, including each-way betting on golf, football and tennis, and especially horse racing and greyhound racing. They also specialize in novelty events such as betting that there will be a white Christmas, the outcome of political elections and reality television contests.
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